{
  "scope": "Scientific method disclosure for the local candidate; based on accepted runtime and scoped semantic corrections. Not scientific certification of every source cell or 2050 validity.",
  "general_contract": {
    "chain_identity": "family + indicator + unit + region + sex + age + locality + boundary + definition/measurement regime + institution/scope/version where applicable; never aggregate differently defined strata automatically",
    "history": "Original published, harmonized, or derived history as documented per family; the UI currently collapses these distinctions for many rows",
    "scenario": "Conditional extrapolation. No validated 2050 forecast and no calibrated prediction interval. Fixed damping and finite plausibility screens are assumptions, not empirically established biological/economic bounds.",
    "validation": "Current-vintage rolling-origin retrospective tests; generally horizons 1/3/5. No source-cell audit or 25-year certification follows from payload preservation or good short-horizon scores.",
    "metrics": "MAE = mean absolute prediction error; RMSE = sqrt(mean squared prediction error), both in the target unit; MASE is scaled by training-only naive differences when defined. Origin counts and comparison cohort must accompany each score. Do not pool incompatible units or treat overlapping origins/strata as independent replicates.",
    "sources": "Public aggregate provenance and scientific inputs are linked in sources.html. IDs, source counts, external references and derived inputs are separate. A resolved lineage route is not clinical or long-range predictive validation.",
    "missing": "Null/withheld is not zero. Conflicting source versions, uncertain denominators and inappropriate measures must remain explicit."
  },
  "families": {
    "ncd": {
      "measurement": "First registered diagnoses per 100,000 corresponding population, or registered disease counts/rates; never unique persons or true disease incidence without ascertainment assumptions.",
      "denominator": "Matched source sex/age/locality population; registered diagnoses have a different case concept. ICD mapping remains unverified.",
      "future_formula": "Constant last level; or exp(log(y2025) + b*sum(phi^k,k=1..h)), b=OLS slope of last five annual log observations; phi 0.8 main assumption, 0.6/0.95 diagnostic. Count futures withheld pending coherent exposure/burden model.",
      "aggregation": "Overlapping all/female/age/urban/rural measures not additive; no rate-to-count conversion.",
      "gaps": "Definitions restored from source metadata for 97 chains; clinical coding and ascertainment remain unverified. The 2020/2021 source bridge lacks overlap and does not establish a homogeneous clinical process."
    },
    "mortality": {
      "measurement": "All-cause age-specific deaths/rates, cause-specific counts, crude and standardized rates, child mortality source indicators, combined NCD period probability 30-70; 72 labels remain separate.",
      "denominator": "Unit-specific: corresponding age-sex population, total population, source birth-cohort denominators, or life-table probability. Age-standardization reference population is not established for 2,112 historical chains.",
      "future_formula": "Eligible 2025-ending rate/probability chains: last value or damped last-five-observation transformed endpoint slope (z_last-z_first_of_five)/4; step weights 1,0.8,0.8^2,... . Log for positive rates; logit for genuine percentages. Zero-containing trend futures withheld; counts not extrapolated.",
      "aggregation": "No sum of standardized rates, nested causes, rates over territories, or conversion of 30-70 probability to annual deaths.",
      "gaps": "Exact accepted source routes are exposed for all 114170 mortality history rows; source IDs and provenance counts are separate. Many definitions still repeat source codes; clinical construct, source bridge, standard populations and long-horizon validity remain unresolved.",
      "period": "Calendar reporting year for annual deaths, coefficients or period probabilities. measurement_regime (including WHO live-birth transition) is separate. Raw database December31/date labels are preserved in raw_period_kind/raw_reference_date; they do not define a mortality stock."
    },
    "resource": {
      "measurement": "43 distinct reported resource/capacity constructs: physicians/persons/FTE-incompatible positions, beds, organizations/departments, visits, capacity, density and utilization.",
      "denominator": "Population for density; bed or post capacity for utilization as individually reviewed. Reporting date and institutional universe must be explicit.",
      "future_formula": "Constant or last-five-observed log-OLS damping, phi0.8 with 0.6/0.95 diagnostics; 34 constructs numeric, nine occupancy/fill constructs withheld for bound/denominator review.",
      "aggregation": "Counts and densities projected independently; no common capacity-demand balance; overlapping specialties/ownership groups not additive.",
      "gaps": "312 source Table20 unit/header conflicts are quarantined; source bridge and stock date uncertainties remain."
    },
    "resource_supplement": {
      "measurement": "50 hospital clinical-profile mean length-of-stay or bed-turnover constructs, retaining MOH/department and profile scope.",
      "denominator": "Bed and patient discharge/throughput denominator according to source profile; days are not days-per-year occupancy.",
      "future_formula": "Constant or last-five-observed log-OLS damping phi0.8; phi0.6/0.95 diagnostic.",
      "aggregation": "No sums of means/profiles or claim of coherent capacity balance.",
      "gaps": "Future demand, future bed supply, patient case mix and policy changes are not modeled."
    },
    "child_derived": {
      "measurement": "N=published neonatal period intensity; I=new same-calendar-year deaths under 1 divided by live births times1000; U=published under-five period intensity under BNS source convention. These are not asserted WHO life-table q0/5q0.",
      "denominator": "Current-year live births for the new common period-intensity system. Published annual infant coefficient using two birth cohorts is deliberately not substituted.",
      "future_formula": "Forecast log(U), logit(I/U), logit(N/I) with fixed last-five change and damping0.8, then invert/reconstruct; alternative preserves last levels. 12 eligible territorial systems; 21 catalogued systems.",
      "aggregation": "N<I<U maintained within eligible system; no national/regional weighted reconciliation without future births; no cohort-survival interpretation.",
      "gaps": "N/U/I definitions and numerator/denominator roles are distinct in runtime and exports. Original neonatal under-one-month wording versus formal 0–27 days still requires source reconciliation. Rounded published neonatal/under-five coefficients are not inverted to invented death counts; no future birth-weighted regional/national reconciliation."
    },
    "education_science": {
      "measurement": "13 exact national chains over8 labels: qualification/personnel stocks and republican-budget postgraduate admission flows. Admissions use academic-year ending labels, not calendar year.",
      "denominator": "Institution/universe-specific counts; no population denominator. Degree categories and institutions can overlap.",
      "future_formula": "Marginal constant/log-OLS damped paths; coherent admissions total is sum of residency+masters+doctoral paths; independent total retained diagnostic only.",
      "aggregation": "Admissions coherent lane additive for the three components; qualification/personnel stocks never automatically additive or workforce supply.",
      "gaps": "Coherent total uses common-origin coherent-total metrics; independent total is separately labelled diagnostic. Academic-year labels are shown and exported. Personnel/qualification stocks and admissions flows remain nonadditive outside the explicitly coherent three-component admissions system; long-horizon accuracy is not established."
    },
    "finance_external_WHO": {
      "measurement": "CHE/GDP percent and household OOP(HF.3)/CHE percent, separate external WHO GHED vintage2025-12-12, observed through2023.",
      "denominator": "GDP for first ratio, current health expenditure for second. OOP/CHE=100*HF.3/CHE. CHE excludes capital.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or last-five log trend for CHE/GDP and logit trend for OOP/CHE, damping0.8. Primary training2010-2023; horizons to2026/2050 are3/27 years.",
      "aggregation": "Not nominal/real spending totals; no regional allocation.",
      "gaps": "Pre2010 WHO estimation/interpolation and current-vintage classifications; no future inflation/GDP/policy forecast or calibrated long-range interval."
    },
    "mixed_disease_classes": {
      "measurement": "Respiratory-all and endocrine/nutritional/metabolic first-registered diagnosis rates. Neither entire mixed class is automatically an NCD construct.",
      "denominator": "100,000 corresponding population, same sex/age/locality; not unique persons.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or last-five-observed calendar-year log-OLS damping0.8;30 national chains.",
      "aggregation": "Overlapping strata not additive; no coherent population exposure system.",
      "gaps": "Source2020/2021 seam, unverified ICD mapping, ascertainment and some missing2018-2020 observations. Five gapped chains have no h3/h5 validation."
    },
    "workforce_specialties": {
      "measurement": "82 chains /28 reported physician-specialty and locality labels, counts or per10,000 population; persons are not FTE.",
      "denominator": "Population for reported density; institutional scope includes source-specific private/all-department distinctions; precise stock date may be unspecified.",
      "future_formula": "Constant and last-five log-OLS damped0.8;0.6/0.95 diagnostics.",
      "aggregation": "Specialty totals/subgroups can overlap; count-density and training-graduation-retirement balances not enforced.",
      "gaps": "Not a workforce needs/supply plan; no age/sex demand, productivity, training lag or retirement process."
    },
    "preventive_exam_reporting": {
      "measurement": "Four detected-child conditions per1,000 examined ages0-14; TB detected-at-exam share; TB exam coverage inventory.",
      "denominator": "Examined children or source detected-case population, not total population; TB coverage unique-person denominator unresolved.",
      "future_formula": "Five eligible indicators: last value or fixed last-five logit-damped0.8; TB coverage future and logit diagnostics withheld.",
      "aggregation": "Conditions overlap; no summation or translation into population prevalence/case counts.",
      "gaps": "Six source definitions restored; future examined population, ascertainment and exam coverage are not modeled. TB coverage unique-person denominator remains unresolved and unsupported futures remain withheld."
    },
    "inpatient_surgery": {
      "measurement": "188 chains /154 labels: MOH diagnosis LOS and case fatality, operation counts/shares/complications, separate age categories.",
      "denominator": "LOS: discharged patients; case fatality: hospital departures including deaths; operation shares: all operations. Complication denominator unresolved.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or transformed last-five log-OLS/logit-OLS damping;115 chains numeric,73 withheld. Counts require exposure/demand and are not projected here.",
      "aggregation": "Operations are not patients; nested operation types, age totals, counts and shares not jointly coherent.",
      "gaps": "188 source definitions restored, without independent clinical validation. Complication denominators and common-fold comparisons remain necessary; no clinical-burden forecasts. Counts remain withheld where appropriate."
    },
    "maternal_reproductive_reporting": {
      "measurement": "19 constructs:3 modeled service shares, plus pregnancy complications, caesarean outcomes, contraception and registered-child-disability inventory.",
      "denominator": "Early registration: women entering observation; therapist exam: pregnancies completed in report cohort; caesarean share: all deliveries, not live births/all operations. Remaining denominators/scopes insufficient.",
      "future_formula": "Only3 shares: last value or last-five logit-OLS damping0.8. Last consecutive segment, minimum8;150 numeric futures,800 withheld.",
      "aggregation": "Do not merge MOH operation universe with all-department deliveries; contraception categories and disability ages nested.",
      "gaps": "Definitions restored from source metadata for all19 chains. Two conflicting2016 cells retain null and source_conflict_withheld in runtime/CSV/JSON; some valid h3/h5 targets absent. Unresolved denominators and scopes continue to withhold unsupported futures."
    },
    "finance_external_WHO_real": {
      "measurement": "CHE per capita in constant2023 national-currency units, WHO GHED; excludes capital.",
      "denominator": "Per person; general GDP deflator, not healthcare-specific purchasing volume.",
      "future_formula": "Last value, last-five log-damped0.8 or training-only log SES; anchor2023, primary2010-2023,2024/25 gap projections separate.",
      "aggregation": "No future nominal expenditure, inflation forecast, regional allocation or total-spending forecast.",
      "gaps": "Runtime definition blank; release_contract independent_review remains pending; source-deflator seam2017/2018 and limited origins."
    },
    "reported_health_service_source_reviewed": {
      "measurement": "14 reported medical-service/registration constructs;13 numeric model chains,1 withheld.",
      "denominator": "Construct-specific source population/live-birth denominator or event counts; report activity is not unique persons or population demand.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or last-five log-OLS damping0.8; current-vintage h1/3/5 benchmarks.",
      "aggregation": "Reporting universes must remain separate, no counts/rates consistency or total demand inference.",
      "gaps": "14 source definitions restored; source bridge without overlap, event/person distinction and exposure limitations remain."
    },
    "home_hospital_MOH_reported_activity": {
      "measurement": "MOH home-hospital treated-patient activity; source unit patients does not establish unique persons.",
      "denominator": "Reported service events/activity, not population demand.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or last-five log-OLS damping0.8; h1/3/5 origins5/3/1.",
      "aggregation": "No population-exposure or institutional-capacity reconciliation.",
      "gaps": "Source definition restored. The2019 total5303 conflicts with repeated53303/regional sum and remains a source conflict; source2020/21 seam and unique-person interpretation unresolved."
    },
    "mortality_age_rate_approx": {
      "measurement": "76 national age-sex/lane chains: approximate calendar deaths per1,000 midpoint January population, not official mx/qx/life table.",
      "denominator": "E_approx=(P_age,sex,Jan1(t)+P_age,sex,Jan1(t+1))/2; rate=1000*D/E_approx. Infant age0 uses age0 population, not births.",
      "future_formula": "Keep observed2025 rate or undamped Poisson log-linear rate fitted on whole training history with exposure; fitted trend level is not rebased to observed2025.",
      "aggregation": "No future death counts without external exposure, no life-expectancy or cohort-probability derivation; open85+ composition is a strong assumption.",
      "gaps": "Mixed death/stock vintages; core2014 has no h5 backtest; open-age composition and overdispersion; no long-horizon calibration."
    },
    "period_life_expectancy": {
      "measurement": "180 published period life-expectancy-at-birth chains;178 eligible and2 source-geography conflicts withheld. Years, not cohort longevity.",
      "denominator": "Life-table construct; no simple population denominator or valid population-weighted regional average.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or additive last-five-year OLS slope with damping0.8; not a coherent age-mortality model.",
      "aggregation": "No mean/sum over regional/sex/locality e0; modern regional map uses verified2009+ recast contract only.",
      "gaps": "2021-2025 recovery slope can extrapolate COVID rebound; no biological long-term calibration, unresolved female-urban Jambyl/Zhetisu rows."
    },
    "period_total_fertility": {
      "measurement": "60 published period TFR chains, children per woman under current age-specific fertility schedule15-49; registration-year period rate.",
      "denominator": "Age-specific female exposures underlie official TFR; 5-year ASFR sum gives TFR=5*sum(ASFR)/1000 where definitions/versions match.",
      "future_formula": "Last value or last-five-year log-OLS damped0.8; no ASFR/tempo/parity/birth-count coherence.",
      "aggregation": "Never multiply TFR by all women for annual births or population-weight regional TFRs into national TFR.",
      "gaps": "Recent fertility reversal; source-vintage and ASFR sum discrepancies; raw period_kind erroneously labels December31 stock, corrected only in analytical layer."
    }
  },
  "additional_public_outputs": {
    "demography": {
      "variables": [
        "population_start",
        "births",
        "deaths",
        "net_external_migration",
        "net_internal_migration",
        "population_end"
      ],
      "formula": "P_end=P_start+B-D+E+I; next P_start=P_end. B/P_start and D/P_start are unweighted mean2023-2025 ratios held fixed. E/I are absolute means over5 or10 years, or linear transition from3-year to10-year mean over first5 forecast years. KAZ=sum20 regions; internal migration sums zero by shared weights.",
      "period": "P_start January1 year; flows calendar year; P_end January1 next year.2026 P_start observed,2026 flows scenario.",
      "metrics": "Population-start metrics explicitly labeled as January1 population; component-flow errors are not claimed.",
      "arithmetic_audit": "All1575 scenario rows independently replayed; max stock-flow residual3.54e-9; all component formulas match within floating rounding.",
      "gaps": "Historical population_end maps to observed January1 of next calendar year from2009 onward, with explicit dates. Legacy summary is marked archival; current recipe documented here."
    },
    "WPP": {
      "variables": [
        "published_UN_medium_deaths",
        "conditional_expected_deaths",
        "external_person_years",
        "rate_per1000 (exported for age-sex components; national aggregate rate null; all38 component rates exported in component_inputs)",
        "national_death_sum",
        "national_exposure_sum",
        "ratio/path/open-age flags"
      ],
      "formula": "Published single-age death counts converted from thousands*1000, summed into19 disjoint groups×2 sexes. Hybrid deaths=rate_per1000*UN modelled person-years/1000. National totals=sum38 age-sex cells, separately for2 history lanes×2 rate assumptions.",
      "unit": "Annual death events; external exposure is modelled person-years for Jan1-Dec31, not observed persons or July stock.",
      "gaps": "Mixed historical-rate and external-exposure vintages, unresolved100plus/open-age issues and absent mortality feedback remain explicit. Export now includes actual rate, exposure, scale/source and component inputs.",
      "arithmetic_audit": "3800 products and100 national sums replayed exactly;1026 published comparator cells; UN2050 sum219285."
    },
    "source_extensions": {
      "variables": "39 dataset×measurement/flow/measure/unit combinations, not39 unique epidemiological variables;8 datasets,38 runtime chunks,102174 as-published source slots",
      "measurement": "52080 death-count slots;33300 published mortality-rate slots;16794 migration slots. Death counts, population-based rates and cohort-birth infant rates distinct. Migration arrivals/departures/net retain flow and age partitions.",
      "formula": "None: exact string source cells, no model/aggregation.678 slots have no analytical year (165mortality+513migration); raw year retained.",
      "gaps": "Overlapping source editions, regional boundaries not uniformly recast, overlapping migration ages, nonnumeric markers, source identities/revisions; no scientific fit eligibility inferred."
    },
    "raw_explorer": {
      "variables": "6712 domain×indicator catalog entries /6644 unique codes /24domains;26 source fields;87 user-provided local shards declared1320847rows",
      "formula": "No numerical aggregation. Chart requires exact dimensions/period kind, unique dates and≥2numeric rows; declared unsafe statuses blocked.",
      "gaps": "Public catalog is not online access to all rows: UI requires selecting local archive files. Filename/hash integrity does not certify scientific definitions. Date-format period heuristic is not a verified measure-specific reference-period contract."
    }
  }
}